Los Angeles Math Circle

4/29 -- LAMC High School: Bayes' Rule, Bayesian Philosophy, and the Potential of Bayesian Techniques -- Prof. Johanna Hardin (Pomona College)

Starting with Bayes' rule, we'll figure out the probability of winning the 1960's game show Let's Make a Deal. We'll extend the ideas to some examples where Bayesian thinking helps avoid common misunderstandings. Finally, we will apply Bayesian ideas to statistical inference. Using prior knowledge, we will assess different estimators with an application to baseball batting averages.